BE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE QUOTES ON MY SIDEBAR.

BE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE QUOTES ON MY SIDEBAR.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Winter Forecast 2011-12

Every year, in our local paper,  one of the 'old-timers' in our area (Melinda Lane Hedgecoth) predicts what our winter will be here on the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee.  Melinda is actually the daughter of the woman who used to make these predictions.. Melinda's mother is no longer alive,  so Melinda has carried on the tradition.  Melinda (and other Crab Orchard Old-Timers around this area) use NATURE when making their predictions.  AND --to be honest,  these folks (like those in the Old Farmers' Almanac) are usually more accurate than the professional weather people.

Here are some of the predictions for us this winter:
--We won't have as harsh a winter this year as we did last,  due to the fact that there are very few wooly worms in our area this fall.
--Only FOUR early morning fogs were seen in our area in August,  with only one of them being very heavy;  That means that we'll  only have four snows this winter --with only one of them heavy.
--Our lack of a large mast crop this Fall is another indicator of a milder winter. 
--HOWEVER,  the cornhusks were thick this year --which indicates a harsh winter.....
--The evidence of a lot of spider webs indicates that whatever winter weather we get will be mainly in the form of ICE (Yuk) and will be very cold but with minimal snow.

Harsh weather usually falls around the changing of the moon phase and any snow that falls on a full moon usually melts off fast.  But---if it falls on a new moon,  it usually will hang on for a few days,  spawning the additional predictor of  "if a snow hangs on for several days,  it's usually waiting around on another one"----meaning there'll soon be another snow.

Thus,  they are telling us to keep an eye on Nov. 10 (full moon) and Nov. 25 as this is a new moon.   Also,  we need to watch Dec. 10 (full moon) and Dec. 24 (new moon).   SO---for all of us hoping for a white Christmas,   we may just get one!!!!!

Melinda said that her Mama always said that her Dad told her that winter was never officially over until after Easter (April 8, 2012).   SO----she told us to button up our overcoats and stay warm for what could be a cold, perhaps icy,  yet milder winter than last year. 

+++++++++++++
I guess (as a snow-lover) that this winter will not be a favorite of mine... But--I know how much George hates to shovel snow... SO---I guess I need to be happy...  BUT--I certainly don't like the idea of ICE...... Oh Well!!!!!

What is the weather going to be in your area?  Looks like the north is in for a very harsh winter...

Have a wonderful day.
Hugs,
Betsy

67 comments:

Ms. A said...

According to the map you have posted, little if any frozen precip.

hundredsofideas said...

I just told my husband that we haven't seen any wooly worms this year...hmmm your map says we will be mild, which is fine by me!

June said...

I expect it'll be about the same as it is every year: snow, cold, dark and too long.

Arkansas Patti said...

Yikes, I am in the same ice belt as you. This might be the year to spring for a generator.
I am like you and am hoping for snow--sorry George.

Lisa @ Two Bears Farm said...

We've seen a few woolies here - we were just researching them last night!

A Brit in Tennessee said...

I recall we had snow on Christmas Day last year, flurries but nevertheless snow :)
I know it makes for rough driving conditions, but oh how I love a deep fluffy snowfall :)
Hope you are continuing to feel better !
~Jo

Abe Lincoln said...

One solid black wooly worm was found here. Someone said that it was going to be a super cold, wet (snow and ice) winter with biting winds. I hope not but hope won't work.

Big Dude said...

When I moved here the original Ms. Lane was often on the local radio stations giving her annual projections. I can't recall ever checking to see how accurate she was, but I enjoyed her process. I'm a snow fan as well but have learned that as a retiree, I rarely have to go anywhere before the snow melts on it's own in a few days - therefore the shovel gets only emergency use.

Neal said...

Well, you can come spend the winter with us. :) Looks like we're suppose to get the worst of it.

Daisy said...

As usual, my state is in the "worst" section. haha! I'll send you some of our snow, Betsy, when we get it. :D

From the Kitchen said...

I sure don't like the looks of our area on that weather map!! Brrrrr! My mother always said "don't plant anything until after Mother's Day.

Best,
Bonnie

Mamma has spoken said...

I hadn't seen any wooly worms this year either. And I am not liking that I am on the boarder line for icy and worst winter ever :o(

Harriet said...

Last year was too much snow but I wouldn't mind having a little snow. No ICE please!!

gigihawaii said...

Well, I hope you get your wish and have a white Christmas! Good luck! Here in Hawaii, it tends to be rainy, but sunny.

Kim @ Stuff could... said...

I Love this info of how they used to try to figure out the weather! I know that my Dad tells me about the moon cycles...and it seems to work with canning. I hope for no ice since it keeps us home bound....

Ruth's Photo Blog said...

Interesting forecast. One thing I know for sure is that the weather will be changing and it will get colder. I do hope we get just enough snow to make my world pretty,but no ice is needed. Now if only the weather would listen to you or me. LOL
Have a good day,whatever the weather.

Karin said...

I don't think I've ever heard such predictions for our region based on what is seen in nature! Very interesting! I'll let myself be surprised. So far we've had our windows open every day because it has been too warm in our apartment and we haven't turned the thermostat up yet! Unbelievable! Would love a little snow for Christmas - that's all!

Linda said...

I live in that "Worst of Winter Cold and Snow" region. With the weather extremes all over the world, we expect the worst and hope for the best. :)

Sandra said...

her predictions sound like what the people in KY used to use for the weather, that was before TV and our weather persons. you are right, a lot like the almanac. the thing is, her predictions work for your area but not ours, now i am wondering if there is a FL person out there with predictions. i will have to google it. if spiderwebs mean ice/snow, we will be buried in the tropics, my windows look like angel hair and today i need to get out there and get rid of them

Maple Lane said...

I'm thankful for the 2 pretty snows we had here last winter. I was able to get some good pics of our last house in the snow for our memory book. (Dec. & Jan.)

Snap said...

More drought here ... :( :( :(

Fun post, Betsy.

nanny said...

Oh I don't like the sound of more Ice than Snow!!! yuck!!

Better get hubby to make sure the generator is ready to roll! Ice always means NO POWER!

Cheryl @ The Farmer's Daughter said...

Second try at commenting! Grrrr at blogger!
I'm not sure which zone I fall in since I live in the middle of Missouri. This is an interesting post, Betsy! I'll be curious to see if her predictions are accurate. I haven't seen a lot of wooly worms this year, so maybe we'll not have a harsh winter.
Have a great day!

TexWisGirl said...

we typically get more ice than real snow here in NE Tx, but last winter was an exception, with one snowfall of about 10 inches. this year i'm just hoping for precipitation in any form to help with the drought...

Pam said...

Betsy, your lucky to have a cozy fireplace and George to snuggle and cuddle with if it gets to cold.
Every year its the same here.. our snow melts on the way down:)

Hugs,
Pam

Katherine Aucoin said...

I would rather the snow than the ice and with my mom moving here next week, I hope she sees snow and no ice.

imac said...

These Old ideas (as you say) are far better - because folk in them days could read Nature, not as todays - IT tech stuff.
Like the post and as always your writings Betsy.

Dorothy said...

Pooey! I wanted Snow!!!

Ginny said...

This week is beautiful and in the 60's and 70's. I wish it would stay this way. At a party I went to, the crowd was divided! One group said a horrible winter, the other said mild! I heard that when there are not many nuts, it will be mild, and that has been the case here. Your frog thing is hilarious! How are you??

HolleyGarden said...

Interesting information. According to the spider webs, mast crops, and fogs here, we should have a mild winter. And I see your map says "Little if any frozen precipitation." However, I hope we do continue to get the non-frozen kind of precipitation (rain)! I hope you get a white Christmas! How romantic.

KathyA said...

Very, very interesting! The few wooly worms we've seen are almost all brown with very little black -- meaning, I think, a mild winter.

What is a 'mast' crop?

GreatGranny said...

I love this and it looks like ice for us according to the map, sure hope she's wrong. I love snow, but we can't always have what we want.I haven't seen any woolly worms.
I wonder what phase the moon was in last Dec. when we got our white Christmas.

Busy Bee Suz said...

Me? Mild Mild Mild. But on during winter. Summer is HOT HOT HOT!!
xoxoxo

Retired English Teacher said...

This was very interesting. So are you going to save this and see if she was right? DUH, I just thought about what I just wrote. OF COURSE you are saving it; it is written in your blog. LOL

Let us know how accurate the forecast is. That should be something fun to follow.

Happyone:-) said...

I hope she is wrong!! I don't want it to be stormy and cold!! : )

Becca's Dirt said...

I don't know what the predictions are for here but I think milder than last year. Sounds to me like she knows her stuff. Hope you are feeling better Betsy.

Ann said...

according to that map I live in the area that is slated for "worst of winter cold and snow" Oh boy, not what I want to hear :)

Birdman said...

Wow!
What predictions! Maine and New England 'cold and stormy'. Now that's going out on a limb. Genius! hahahaha

wildlifewatcher said...

Hi Betsy, Interesting post. I do think that by watching the natural world, weather predictions can be pretty accurately made. Have a great day and thanks for this topical post!

Donna said...

Ice scares the dickens out of me - driving and walking. And it greatly increases the chance of losing electrical power. So those ice storms can go somewhere else! As a long-time gardener, the last average frost in our area is around April 21-22. I can't remember the year, but it's been in the past decade or so when we got a foot of snow on May 3!

Out on the prairie said...

sounds tough for all withthe map. I wanted mild stuff, i have a huge hill to get up

LV said...

Interesting. My folks thought the old Farmers was was the gospel then.

Fred Alton said...

Hi Betsy! Your post reminds me of my Grandpa Jones. He would get up each morning, walk out to the back porch to the wash-basin, pour in a gourd full of water, splash two hands full of water onto his face while simultaneously blowing into his hands, wipe his face and while wiping his hands, walk out into the yard and look into the sky and start giving us the weather report! Thanks for the memories.

Chatty Crone said...

Gosh Atlanta is on the border between ice and snow. Oh no! Well it will sure be better then our neighbors up north - this is when the south shines! sandie

Lynn said...

According to your map, we will be mild! Bummer. Two years ago, the entire month of January was COLD and I so loved it. The water in the birdbath keep freezing and they kept warning people near fields to be aware of black ice from the sprinklers during the night. I don't like ice. Have not driven on ice since we lived in Va back in 1980. So guess I am ok, does not appear FL will have much ice, heheh. Blessings!

Rose said...

It was almost cold enough to snow here...once when I went out to the shop to talk to Roger it almost felt like it was spitting snow...but I assumed it was just a cold rain.

Carletta said...

All the things you mentioned I've heard commented on for a good or bad winter. In the four years I've been back in WV though the lack of mast crops seem to indicate a bad winter for us and the deer. Since there has been a spitting of snow already this year in some parts I'm hoping for lots of snow. :)

amy @ Life in Pink Hi-Tops said...

I agree--winter is never over until Easter! Judging by the amount of spider webs around here things won't be good this winter. Plus I've already had to turn the heat on because it gets too cold at night!!

Thoughtfully Blended Hearts said...

Sounds interesting...but most Tennessee winters are interesting... but not usually fun!!! Have a great week!!!

Thoughtfully Blended Hearts said...

Sounds interesting...but most Tennessee winters are interesting... but not usually fun!!! Have a great week!!!

Angela said...

Hi Betsy!

I think I've only seen 1 wooly worm this year. I thought it was because the drought killed them out or I haven't been outside long enough! lol Our local weather guy says that we are going to have a very snowy winter this year kind of like what 1953 was. I would love to see a very deep snow myself! I have sleds and I'm ready for it! Let it snow!

Hugs,
Angela

Pearl@serenitycove said...

Ohio...Worst of winter cold and snow:( What else is new?? I'll take a few ice storms over 6 months of cold and snow...Betsy, I'm coming to TN!!!

SquirrelQueen said...

Well according to your map the frequent winter storms are aimed at us and we are going to get snow. Sounds like a normal winter. After AK is not bad but I'm glad I don't live in the Midwest.

The current forecast is snow for our mountains and rain for us this weekend.

Prime Aque said...

Hello there, how I wish I can experience a white Christmas even just once in my life. I live in the Philippines I can't really imagine how it feels to live with a place surrounded by ice or snow, I am sure that would be so exciting my friend! And, oh yes, the old timers back in our province can predict things, and yes, they were correct or almost correct most of the times! They just got the sense for it, and I always believe them in the presence of many technologies nowadays! Anyway, as December is approaching, we have a bit colder weather with mix rain and sunshine! But I really wish to see a real snow! That is super exciting! Cheers. This is is Prime Aque from www.simplifiedblogging.com :)

mudderbear said...

I feel like I should memorize everything you've said in this post so I'll be prepared. But I don't think I can remember so much anymore. I'm not sure I'm looking forward to winter so much this year.

ladyfi said...

Yep - winter will be cold! I do like the snow, so hope we - and you - get some.

Dar said...

Loved this "Natures way" of predicting the weather. I know my joints and arthritic knuckles can tell you a thing or two about change in the weather. We are in WI so are predicted, as your old timer says, to have cold and snow~~~and lots of it. The Grandloves will love making snow angels, snowmen and forts this winter. I will love the chance to strap on the snowshoes.
We are getting flurries this very minute.
BlessYourHearts and
StayWarm

Ciccia said...

What a beautiful place Tennessee is. I grew up in New York and lived there for many years but never went to Tennessee, I only went to Arizona, because I had friends there. I am looking forward to your posts and pictures. My daughter wants to go to the South because of Elvis, her idol! Memphis is her destination:) I am following you from Rome, Italy!

Tricia @ Bluff Area Daily said...

We always get more ice than snow... I'm sick of ice... I want snow... NO ICE! Come on Mother Nature, give us a break!

I remember when I was a kid & there'd be snow pretty much all winter long... Now, nothing but a light dusting, but ALWAYS WITH THE ICE!!!

Come to think of it, I haven't seen a wooly worm one... none at all!

Betty Jo said...

Hi Betsy! An awesome post. I moved from TN to NC this past summer. I don't think I've ever been to Fairfield Glade. It sounds wonderful.

Lana said...

I'm in Indy and rumor has it there is snowing at home! Winter cometh!

Catherine said...

We aren't supposed to have very much snow this year but it's supposed to be very very cold. Honesty ~ I do not like either. I need to move to California.

Happy Weekend Betsy!
xo Catherine

Pat @ Mille Fiori Favoriti said...

I am not a fan of ice, either, Betsy! So many people get seriously hurt falling on ice. I'd rather have snow ...but no blizzards. This autumn has been unusually warm. It is so hard to predict the weather long term.

Enjoy your weekend!

diane b said...

It is interesting how some predict the weather from nature like our ancestors did. I reckon they could be as accurate as the technology stuff. Our weather gurus have told us that we are likely to have another very wet summer including bad storms and floods. There are even adds on TV and in the papers on how to plan and protect ourselves in floods and cyclones. So it all sounds a bit scary at times. We are safe from flooding here but storms could be damaging. I feel sorry for the poor people who went through last summer's floods and cyclones, who still haven't got their house back or a new home. The insurance companies !!!!!!

Twilight Man said...

I truly believe these gifted people who have very good senses! I quite agree that winter always end way after the months of March for North American places like Upstate, Ohio and parts of Pa. The snow kept falling when I was there.

I am sorry for being away from blogging as my work was 'killing' me! LOL

Stickhorsecowgirls said...

Didn't see a single wooly worm this year! I love the iris so much--I never planted the ones I bought and intended to plant this Spring. Thought I would plant them this fall and see if anything would happen, but didn't get around to it! Guess they will have to go to the compost pile!
V

Cicero Sings said...

I'm with George when it comes to shoveling snow! I've already had a go at doing so this last Saturday. Ugh.